Sanctions scare Erdogan away from renewing aggressions in northern Syria

Ahmed Sami Abdel Fattah

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan still hopes that the mainly Kurdish People’s Protection Units will withdraw from areas they control them in northern Syria, in the light of understandings he reached with both the United States and Russia.

Some Turkish officials said their country would resume its military operation in northern Syria if the units had not honored these understandings by withdrawing from these areas.

Nevertheless, the Turkish newspaper, Ahwal Turkey, quoted an unnamed security source who said that Ankara does not plan to resume its operation in the northern part of Syria.

On November 25, the Russian Foreign Ministry warned against the return of the Islamic State group to northern Syria in case Turkey resumes its operation in the area.

Turkish threats, it said, raise concern in Moscow.

Turkish Foreign Minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, said on November 17 that his country would resume the operation because neither Washington nor Moscow honored its obligations towards Ankara.

Impossible aggression

Several hindrances stand in the way of Ankara’s resumption of its hostilities in northern Syria. Turkey is afraid that a resumption of its operation in northern Syria will tempt the US to impose economic sanctions on it. These sanctions will devastate the Turkish economy and undermine the Turkish lira even more.

Turkey cannot occupy the whole of northern Syria in a short period. This means that an operation in this part of Syria can drag on for months. This will weaken the Turkish military and cause harms to the Turkish economy.

Turkey is also keen on maintaining good ties with Russia. It wants to use close relations with Moscow in striking a balance in its foreign relations at a time of tension with the US.

Empty threats

Turkish affairs specialist, Mohamed Hamed, said Erdogan only wants to give the impression that his country can do many things.

“The fact, however, is that Turkey cannot do anything, because it cannot tolerate the US economic sanctions or any angry military reaction from Russia,” Hamed told The Reference.

He said Turkey only wants to prevent Syria’s Kurds from establishing a state in northern Syria, near the Turkish border.

“This objective has already been achieved,” Hamed said. “This is why neither Washington nor Moscow would accept renewed Turkish military action in the area.”