After the resignation of Abdul Mahdi: 3 possible scenarios for the Iraqi scene

Ali Ragab

Iraq has entered a new phase with the announcement of Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi to resign to parliament, amid escalating street protests and reveal the role of large tribes in maintaining security in rebellious cities, with at least 418 people killed, and more than 15 thousand wounded, since the outbreak of demonstrations Last October.

Abdel Mahdi announced on Saturday (November 30th) that he had formally submitted his resignation to parliament and invited him to consider it at its next session.

The protests continued on Sunday, the first of December in several provinces, such as Dhi Qar, Maysan, Najaf, Karbala, Diwaniya, Muthanna, Babylon and Diyala which announced the official disruption of duty in memory of the lives of the martyrs of the massacres of Nasiriyah and Najaf.

Hundreds of demonstrators closed the Diwaniya governorate building in the center of the city, and told those in charge of protecting the building not to allow the governor and his deputies to stay, and hung banners on the main gate of the building read “closed by order of the people.”

In the eastern province of Diyala, angry protesters blocked the road linking Baghdad, and police chief Captain Habib al-Shammari: The hundreds of demonstrators blocked the road linking Baghdad and the northern provinces at Jdeid al-Shat in Diyala province, in solidarity with the protests of the central and southern provinces.

The most prominent cities are the city of Nasiriyah, which witnessed a horrific massacre of demonstrators; which led to the issuance of an Iraqi arrest warrant for Lieutenant General Jamil al-Shammari, accused of killing protesters in Dhi Qar province.

Al-Shammari is a key suspect in the killing of demonstrators in Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar after Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi was tasked with restoring security in Nasiriyah. He previously served as the head of Basra operations in the bloody demonstrations in the summer of 2018.

One of the sheikhs of the Bedour clan confirmed that Jamil al-Shammari wanted a clan for all the clans of Dhi Qar, which lost 25 young people, one of them from the Bedour tribe.

The Secretary of the Council of Arab Tribes Thaer al-Bayati highlighted in an interview on Saturday 30 November, the arrival of the commander of the Qods Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Qasem Soleimani, accompanied by 520 members of the Revolutionary Guards to Baghdad to form a joint government that will be the top priority to put down the Iraqi revolution.

Iraq to where?

Mahmoud Jaber, a researcher in the Iraqi affairs, believes that the Iraqi scene after the resignation of Adel Abdul Mahdi, is waiting for three scenarios, the first: the continuation of demonstrations and the escalation of the ceiling demands for the departure of the entire regime, which was evident in the street from the strike of eight provinces in the south and center.

He pointed out that this scenario will lead to the dissolution of parliament, and the holding of new elections, and may develop to amend the Constitution.

The second scenario, according to Jaber, is to choose a new caretaker prime minister and calm the street until parliament completes its parliamentary session, a scenario in which political forces are betting to stay in power, with moves to reduce street congestion.