After AMISOM 2020 withdrawal, terrorist organizations threaten Horn of Africa

Ahmed Adel

Somalia is likely to encounter a future full of threats and challenges, particularly over countering Al-Shabaab and Daesh terrorist groups, especially after the withdrawal of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).

AMISOM started withdrawing its troops since October and is expected to be fully out of the country by December 2020, handing over to the Somali National Army (SNA), which will probably number just 20,000.

AMISOM has been in Somalia for over decade, battling terrorist militias and helping slowly expand state authority.

AMISOM was established in 2007 and includes troops from Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda deployed in south and central Somalia. It aimed to restore security and training local forces in maintaining security and stability.

Some reports, however, affirm that Somali forces are not able to fully control the security situation in the country, and that the forces have not reached the level of competence required to stop the suicide attacks by terrorists.

Head of the AU mission in the country Francisco Madeira has told a news conference in Mogadishu that 1,000 soldiers from the five troop-contributing countries — Uganda, Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti — will depart.

“Our transition must be gradual, conditions-based, responsible and done in a manner that does not compromise the safety and security of the Somali people,” he said.

In September 2019, Daesh operatives appeared in one of its training headquarters, and reports indicate that it is the Dawood camp in Somalia.

A video published by Daesh terrorist Abdel Qader Mumin on Telegram has announced a declaration of war on al-Qaeda branches in Somalia, as he urged terrorists to carryout armed operation against Al-Shabaab militant group.

In October 2015, he swore allegiance to  Daesh and its leader, at the time, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, after he defected from the terrorist organization Al-Shabab, affiliated with Al-Qaeda.

In August 2016, the United States listed Mumin on the terrorism list, describing him as the leader of Daesh in East Africa, labeling him a global terrorist.

In the event of AMISOM withdrawal by 2020, Somalia will face a very serious security dilemma and will have three significant consequences;

1 – Increasing the political division between the Somali federal government and the opposition that demands autonomy and separation from the government of Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmajo”.

2- The security situation will further deteriorate, where Mogadishu suffers mainly from fragility in the security services, whether police or military.

3 – The influence of terrorist groups will increase, as the withdrawal of forces from the country provides a tremendous opportunity for Al-Shabaab to expand and spread to control the largest number of Somali cities. As for Daesh, the organization will try to highlight its presence by carrying out series of terrorist operations and attacks.