Waiting to exploit: Algeria’s Brotherhood keeps an eye on Erdogan’s movements in Libya

Doaa Emam

The Islamist movements in the Arab Maghreb in particular are experiencing a state of anxiety caused by the Libyan National Army’s (LNA) move towards the capital, Tripoli, in April 2019. The groups that rule in some Maghreb countries fear that their gains could be shaken if they lose Libya, as Islamism has had a better experience in the Maghreb than in the Levant.

Despite the anxiety that the Brotherhood is experiencing in Tunisia and Algeria in particular following the actions of LNA commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s invitation came to revive the hopes of the major parties loyal to the group, especially the Ennahda movement in Tunisia and the Movement of Society for Peace (MSP) in Algeria.

Policing the borders

In a meeting chaired by Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune on Thursday, December 26, the Algerian Supreme Security Council took measures to protect the borders with Libya, noting that it had studied the situation in the region and in particular Algeria’s borders with Libya and Mali. The council stressed that it had decided a number of measures it must take to protect the borders, as well as to reactivate and revitalize Algeria’s role at the international level, especially with regard to Africa’s Sahel and Sahara region.

Earlier, Tebboune said that his country is most concerned with the stability of Libya and would make more effort to preserve its unity.

Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA) headed by Fayez al-Sarraj, which is loyal to the Brotherhood in Libya, called on the heads of five countries – the United States, United Kingdom, Italy, Turkey and Algeria – to activate security cooperation agreements.

Algeria’s Brotherhood and Libya’s GNA

Focusing on the Algerian situation, the blatant interference by Algeria’s Brotherhood-affiliated MSP, whose leader Abderrazak Makri attacked the LNA’s move towards Tripoli, is seen as a provocative act for his country, as he claimed that the LNA’s moves in the western region of Libya puts pressure on Algeria’s military establishment “to prepare agendas.”

In a press conference, Makri described the LNA’s advance towards the eastern borders of Algeria as a risk for Field Marshal Haftar himself and for the stability of the region as a whole. The MSP hung a large banner on the front of its headquarters in the Algerian capital, which promised Haftar that there would be a “big surprise” as he approached the Algerian border.

The MSP had also organized a Maghreb forum to discuss the Libyan crisis in April 2016. Makri said that he rejects any foreign intervention in Libya, stressing that the western countries that were intending to launch military interventions in Libya know very well that without the participation of the two neighboring countries – Algeria and Tunisia – the fate of any intervention would be doomed to failure.

In light of this statement, Erdogan’s trips to Tunisia and the GNA’s demands on Algeria could be understood as a desire to win the alliance of the two neighbors before its military intervention in Libya.

Makri also met the head of the Tunisian Brotherhood, Ennahda leader Rached Ghannouchi, along with Libyan Brotherhood leader Ali al-Sallabi, a member of the General Secretariat of the International Union of Muslim Scholars, in an unannounced meeting in February 2017 that also saw the participation of former Algerian Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia. They discussed activating Maghreb relations, which comes against the backdrop of the Libyan crisis.

Makri acknowledged that the MSP has a good network of relations and friendships in Libya and that it can make any dialogue successful with its previous experiences in this regard. He claimed that his meeting with Sallabi and all the meetings between the MSP and Libyan Islamist leaders were friendly meetings, during which no discussion was held about any initiative to sponsor the Libyan dialogue.

According to the Tunisian newspaper Alchourouk, Ghannouchi completed these meetings and then met with GNA head Sarraj, Libyan Homeland Party leader Abdelhakim Belhaj, and leaders of the Brotherhood in one of the official palaces in Istanbul in February 2017.

The newspaper pointed out that the meetings were held under the auspices of Brotherhood leaders from Algeria and Tunisia and under the supervision of Turkey in order to discuss Libya’s future and how to manufacture the scene in the country.

Alchourouk highlighted the involvement of other parties from Qatar and Turkey as well, adding that the Tripoli group stipulated that the Turkish government be a witness the results reached and the promises made by all parties, out of fear that any agreement does not serve the Brotherhood.

Keeping silent

It seems that the current understandings between the Algerian president and the MSP has made it difficult for the movement to talk or state its position regarding what Erdogan is preparing for Libya, as the movement has remained silent, whereas Tebboune appears to be alone in announcing his country’s position regarding the situation with neighboring Libya.

Erdogan’s exposed game

Atef Al-Saadawi, an expert at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said that the Libyan issue is no longer a domestic matter, as the country has become an arena for proxy warfare and there will therefore be accountability for the positions taken. He expected that the matter will lead to tensions in the relations between Algeria and important Arab countries, especially Egypt and the Gulf, given that Algeria’s options have come to support Turkish-Qatari positions and the Sarraj government.

The biggest evidence of this is Erdogan’s pledge during his attendance at the Berlin Conference and his insistence on inviting Algeria and Tunisia, Saadawi said, pointing out that Tunisia’s position is not much different from Algeria’s, but it is not declared with the same intensity and language of antagonism as used by the new Algerian president.