Afghani scene likely to witness civil war

Nahla Abdelmonem

Violent assaults by Taliban against Afghan forces have been on the rise since Washington signed a deal with the group to end war in the country. Taliban fighters attacked at least three army outposts in Imam Sahib district of Kunduz last night, killing at least 10 soldiers and four police.

The insurgents also attacked police in central Uruzgan province on Tuesday night, killing six policemen and wounding seven.

On Monday, the Taliban announced that that it will only take part in the intra-Afghan talks in Oslo in March after the release of the prisoners.

“We are fully ready for the intra-Afghan talks, but we are waiting for the release of our 5,000 prisoners…If our 5,000 prisoners – 100 or 200 more or less does not matter – do not get released there will be no intra-Afghan talks,” said Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told Reuters.

The demand to release the prisoners was rejected by the Afghan government, which said this demand should have been added to the agreement.

Based on the aforementioned, it is clear that there is an internal crisis looming on the ground, and has begun to take shape, as Taliban resumed their armed attacks against security forces.

The Afghan war has been a stalemate for more than 18 years, with Taliban forces controlling or contesting more territory yet unable to capture and hold major urban centers.

Moreover, the country is expected to witness a conflict between presidential candidates, most notably Abdullah Abdullah and his supporters, and the current President Ashraf Ghani and his followers and related tribes, as well as the strong Pashtun tribes and their relations with the Taliban, which means that the country may witness a kind of internal warfare that will grant  Taliban the upper hand, which will affect the turmoil in the neighboring major provinces and affect their interests.

Regarding internal assumptions and the Afghan future scene, Ali Bakr, a political researcher, says Taliban controls large parts of Afghanistan, and it is  likely that the movement will increase the frequency of violence if the country turns into a war zone.

The researcher also stressed that releasing the detainees is not easy for the Afghan government, which is what the US states are currently trying to mediate between the movement and the government.

The agreement has been a critical foreign policy goal for President Trump, however, Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, said the deal included concessions “that could threaten the security of the United States.”

“Releasing thousands of Taliban fighters, lifting sanctions on international terrorists, and agreeing to withdraw all U.S. forces in exchange for promises from the Taliban, with no disclosed mechanism to verify Taliban compliance, would be reminiscent of the worst aspects of the Obama Iran nuclear deal,” she said in a statement Saturday.