Refugee influx: Greece and the impact of the geopolitical dilemma

Eslam Mohamed

Geography is one of the most important determinants of Greek foreign policy, especially relations with its eastern neighbor Turkey, which greatly affects the course of affairs in the region. The raging historical enmity between the two countries remains an important influencing factor in the current political scene in a manner that cannot be overlooked when studying this vital region of the world.

The shifts that have taken place in Turkish politics during the reign of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan changed the view of the major powers in Greece and reshaped the balance of power in the region. Strategic expert John Leeds said that Athens was previously seen as a small part of the troubled relations between Turkey and NATO countries, but the United States now views it as the cornerstone of NATO in one of the most complex geopolitical landscapes.

Leeds added that US Central Command views Ankara as a threat to US targets with regard to the Iranian and Syrian exiles and others.

The region is now experiencing the largest refugee crisis in the post-World War II age. The Greeks are dealing with this issue with the support of the European Union and specialized European agencies such as Frontex that provide financial and technical support to the Greek security forces.

These recent developments that have taken place during the rule of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey help explain the desire of Athens to replace Ankara as a regional diplomatic and economic hub and a chief fortress for NATO, given that the Greeks identify more with the demands of US policymakers and assume greater duties in joint defense.

There is a national consensus across the spectrum of political forces in Greece today that the partnership with Washington should form the cornerstone of their country’s national security. This transformation, led by former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, is now spreading through his right-wing initiatives led by the pro-US New Democracy party.

George Prevelakis, professor of geopolitics at Panthéon-Sorbonne University in Paris, said in his book “Geopolitics of Greece” that ensuring Greece’s political and economic stability helps stabilize the region, as Greece is more affected by tensions in the Balkans, Albania, Kosovo, Macedonia, and Serbia. It is also the gateway to southern Europe and is the only democratic country with European culture and origins in turbulent surroundings. The north is witnessing the rise of Balkan nationalists, democracy is declining to the south in North Africa, and Turkey is ruled by Islamists to the east.

Today’s refugee crisis cannot be read in isolation from Turkey’s relations with the European Union and the West in general, and with the strained relations with Greece in particular, which have their roots in the Ottoman era and the events of World War II.