The repercussions of the pandemic: How will coronavirus affect Turkish political system?

Mostafa Salah

Turkey is experiencing both internally and externally, many crises, especially with the spread of the coronavirus emerging in the countries of the world, including Turkey, which caused these countries to take many precautionary measures.

These measures differed from one country to another, according to their considerations and national interests, and for Turkey it has been seeing since March 10, 2020 an increase in the number of infected cases and deaths, which have reached 25,000 infected cases and more than 500 deaths.

It must be pointed out here the great impact of the spread of the virus in Turkey, and the future of the ruling Justice and Development Party, which is likely to decline in popularity, or to employ this issue in achieving some internal and external successes.

Interlocking files

Before the spread of the virus in Turkey, the country was exposed to a group of internal and external crises, the most important of which were as follows:

1) The internal opposition to the party escalated

Turkey is witnessing internally a movement on the part of the opposition parties to confront the ruling Justice and Development Party, especially on the part of the Republican and Democratic People’s Parties, which were able to obtain many internal gains against the ruling party in the municipal elections.

The elections were held in March 2019, in addition to their intention to form alliances with some of the new parties to pressure the policies of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and before the results of the constitutional referendum on April 17, 2017, showed a decline in support for Erdogan, which passed the amendments by a very small difference in the percentage of voting.

2) Internal cleavages in the party

During the last stage, Turkey witnessed a lot of internal interactions at the level of political parties, especially with the announcement of Ahmed Davutoglu and Ali Babacan that they established two new parties – the Future Party and the Party for Democracy and Progress – to confront the Justice and Development Party, which were among its founders, and these transformations represent a beginning to influence the Turkish political scene in the upcoming elections.

3) Internal economic crises

Turkey suffers from a deficit in the balance of its foreign trade, in addition to that its imports are greater than its exports, which affects the monetary reserve of foreign currencies with a deficit.

The lira lost about 20 percent of its value, and increased unemployment and internal inflation rates, as work was stopped due to these crises

4) International sanctions

Turkey faces a group of regional and international pressures in the face of its external moves in many regions, in Syria, Iraq, and Libya, as well as in the gas file in the Eastern Mediterranean region, in addition to its external directions towards cooperation with Russia, which prompted both the United States and European countries to impose more political, economic and military sanctions on it.

5) Coronavirus outbreaks

The Justice and Development Party has directed its orientations towards the military industries and achieving its regional agenda without regard to the other sectors, including the health sector, which showed the results of the spread of the virus, a decline in services within it, as the number of injuries and deaths accelerates.

Extended effect

There are many indications that the spread of the virus may affect Turkey internally and externally. The most important of these are:

1) The decline in the popularity of justice and development

The Justice and Development Party faces a set of pressures, the most important of which is its loss of many major cities, especially the cities of Ankara and Istanbul in the recent municipal elections, which contributed significantly to influencing its popularity, in addition to these internal divisions, and these factors are sure to affect the party’s future in the elections to be held in 2023.

2) Employ the spread of the virus

In light of the internal deterioration that Turkey is witnessing, especially with regard to the file of refugees, it can use this file and invest it in its external directions in facing the pressures of the European Union countries, as Ankara tries to strengthen its position in facing these pressures, due to European fears in particular and the international in general, from the exacerbating refugee crisis.

Possible reflections

The spread of the novel coronavirus will probably be reflected on the “internal and external” levels of Turkish politics, and the following are the most prominent of these scenarios:

Continued domination

This scenario represents an extension of the Justice and Development Party’s control of the state’s joints, especially after many policies that were and are still establishing such control, and in this regard, it is mentioned that after what was called the failed coup attempt on July 15, 2016, it was followed by many nationalization policies and arrests violating human rights and besieging the public sphere in a manner that enhances the chances of the party’s incursion.