Corona, oil crises threaten to collapse GNA in Libya

Mouaz Mohamed

Despite Ankara’s support to the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA), and in light of the escalating calls to stop all hostilities in Tripoli and to address the corona virus instead, the GNA has suffered from an internal political and financial crisis that could make it collapse.

Failed crisis management

Recently, the GNA’s oil revenues have declined, especially after Libyan tribes closed oil ports and fields in opposition to GNA leader Fayez al-Sarraj’s agreement with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in late November 2019 that would give Ankara control over Tripoli’s wealth.

In a statement on Thursday, April 2, Libya’s National Oil Corporation confirmed that the losses since January 17 exceeded $3.8 billion, resulting from the closures of ports and fields after the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar tightened its control.

According to the company, it is losing daily production of more than a million barrels of oil that were supposed to head to global markets, causing a continuous decline to the GNA’s economy and financial reserves, which it uses to support armed militias.

With the spread of the corona virus pandemic, the National Center for Disease Control in Libya announced on Sunday, April 5 that the number of people infected with the virus increased to 18 cases, and Sarraj’s method of managing the country’s crises has garnered criticism, even directed at him from his close associates.

For his part, Abdul Rahman Al-Shater, a member of the Libyan State Council known to be close to the Islamists in Tripoli, condemned Sarraj’s “policies of indecision, poor selection of cadres, widespread corruption, and failure to respond to all alerts and advice.” In a tweet on March 29, he added, “Today you are facing a massive public outcry. You have led the country to a disaster and neglected to prepare for the pandemic.”

Austerity plan

Under the headline “The Brotherhood’s control over the movement of funds threatens the disintegration of the GNA,” the London-based newspaper Al-Arab reported on Sunday, April 5, that stopping the export of oil represents the latest crisis for the GNA, as the revenues that had been pouring into the Central Bank of Libya was used to lavish militias and Islamists. The newspaper confirmed that this prompted the GNA to adopt an austerity plan, which the Libyan people will end up bearing the consequences of.

Libya is currently suffering from a major financial crisis, which could cause waves of protests against the Sarraj government, especially since government employees have not received their salaries since the beginning of this year.

Despite the poor economic situation in Libya, the GNA has pumped $4 billion into the treasury of the Turkish central bank in order to rescue the lira, according to a report by the Qatari opposition website Mubasher Qatar on February 10.

At the same time, Turkey is currently suffering from the spread of the corona virus, while the LNA now manages most of Libya’s ports and oil fields, which hinders Erdogan’s plan to obtain Tripoli’s fortunes and could therefore lead him to cancel his support for the GNA, leaving Sarraj to face an unknown fate alone.