Erdogan using gas find to advance his political agenda

Mustafa Kamel

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan announced on August 21 that a Turkish drilling ship had discovered a major gas field in the Black Sea.

The field, he said, contains 320 billion cubic meters of gas in reserves.

Nevertheless, oil and gas experts say the declared reserves, if confirmed, will not cover Turkey’s needs more than six years. The same reserves, they added, would cover the needs of the European Union only for one year.

The same experts say Turkey will need seven years at least to put the discovered gas online.

Turkey announced ten gas finds in the past years. However, these declarations did nothing to get the Turkish economy out of the morass where it is mired. They were no more than an attempt by Erdogan’s regime to make a media show.

No results

Erdogan said production from the new find would come online in 2023. He noted that this production would bring economic prosperity to his country, thanks to its size.

However, the declared reserves are a trivial fraction of international reserves which have so far reached 203,014 trillion cubic meters of gas.

Worse still, this was not the first time Erdogan announced a major gas find in his country. In September 2009, the director of the Turkish Petroleum Corporation announced his country’s first gas find in the Black Sea.

He said production from the discovered well would go online at the end of the year.

In November 2006, the head of production in the corporation expected more gas finds to come in the Black Sea.

In May 2007, the then-minister of energy and natural resources announced a new find. He said the new discovery would cover 10% of the needs of Turkish homes.

Similar announcements were reported in the following years.

Media propaganda

Pro-Erdogan media propagates fictional victories. By announcing the new find, the Turkish president wants to lead his people into believing that their country will become a gas producer and that it will reduce the prices of energy for the people.

Nevertheless, Erdogan’s announcement is yet to be backed by credited international institutions.

The declaration primarily aimed to give Turkish citizens and investors assurances that Turkey has good days ahead.

Sorry to say, this was not enough to assure the market. The Turkish lira maintained its freefall against all foreign currencies. The shares of the oil corporation also lost most of their value and Turkey’s economic future is still far from certain.