Does ceasefire actually mark end of Turkish presence in Libya?

Nora Bandari

The separate announcements by Fayez al-Sarraj’s Government of National Accord (GNA) and Libyan Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh on Friday, August 21 regarding an immediate ceasefire, holding presidential and parliamentary elections in March 2021, ending foreign interference, removing mercenaries from the country, and opening oil production and export process opens the door to questions about the extent of Ankara’s response to this decision by ending its military interference in Libyan territory.

In light of a history of similar decisions and agreements that Turkish-backed Sarraj retracted just because of its opposition to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plan, as well as the impact of the ceasefire decision (if implemented) on Ankara’s presence in Libya, the question remains: Has Sarraj consulted his Turkish ally to take this decision, or did Ankara take it?

Before answering these questions, it should be noted that when Egypt proposed an initiative on June 6 guaranteeing a return to peaceful solutions in Libya and a ceasefire, many countries supported it at the Arab and international level, but Turkey announced on July 13, via Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, its rejection of the Egyptian initiative, saying that this announcement would not be in the interest of the GNA.

Qatari and Turkish endeavors

Analysts believe that there will be Qatari and Turkish efforts to thwart the ceasefire decision in order to support Turkey’s interference in Libya, which is based on the depletion of land and sea resources.

Although Ankara signed an international agreement in Berlin at the beginning of 2020 stipulating not interfering in Libyan affairs, it did not fulfill its pledges, as usual, and continued its military support for the GNA militias. On Friday, August 21, Turkey sent a C-130 military plane loaded with mercenaries and ammunition, which landed at the Libyan al-Watiya base, to support Sarraj, according to Al-Arabiya.

Qualitative development

To answer the previous questions, Hesham al-Najjar, a researcher specializing in Islamist movements, explained to the Reference that the ceasefire decision represents a qualitative development and will likely be the beginning of a tactical retreat of the Qatari-Turkish-Brotherhood alliance in Libya in front of the strong Egyptian position that does not allow the advancement of Turkish forces or affiliated militias. Moreover, it may be a Turkish maneuver to take a breath, arrange its cards, and mobilize more forces on the ground to re-attempt to extend its hegemony over Libya. These developments must therefore be dealt with cautiously.

Najjar pointed out that Sarraj cannot take a unilateral decision of this size without returning to Erdogan, so it is expected that the Turkish president and his intelligence service are the ones who pushed for this approach, since he is now in trouble and cannot militarily change the stalemate and reality on the ground due to many factors, including the Egyptian position and Washington’s rejection of any military escalation that could lead to expanded regional conflict. Erdogan therefore resorted to political maneuvering, which is a tactic he used in the Syria, without completely giving up the military option.

Mercenary problem

For his part, Mohamed Sadiq Ismail, director of the Arab Center for Political and Strategic Studies, told the Reference that the ceasefire will affect Turkey and its mercenaries in Libya. If Sarraj implements this decision, the mercenaries must return to their homelands again, which poses another problem, because these mercenaries could penetrate into Africa if Erdogan does not bring them back to their places of origin. Therefore, international guarantees must be taken for the Turkish president to return them just as he had brought them.

Ismail explained that this decision is primarily Turkish and that Ankara dictated it to Sarraj, as indicated by Ankara welcoming it after Sarraj suffered many military defeats recently.