Washington and Ankara: Tense relationship determined by US election results

Shaimaa Yahya

The importance of the current US elections for Turkey is that its result will determine the level of relations between the two countries over the next four to eight years, as this relationship has witnessed deep differences since the arrival of Republican President Donald Trump to the Oval Office due to the lack of stability in relations between him and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, especially after the latter’s intransigence and his continuation of provocative policies in the region, such as the conflicts in Syria and Iraq, Ankara’s attitudes towards Libya, and the Cyprus and eastern Mediterranean issue. However, despite the differences between them, which were evident in a package of sanctions and decisions taken by Washington against the Turkish regime and its policies, Trump has maintained a good relationship with his Turkish counterpart.

Complex files

Turkey has recently raised a climate of tension and escalation at the regional level, and there have been some inflammatory files between Turkey and the United States that have exacerbated relations between the two countries. American-Turkish relations have sometimes been involved in unstable conflicts. The old accounts that are running between them must end thanks to the great geopolitical changes that the region is witnessing, specifically international relations and interests in general.

In 2018, the conflict reached its climax and the escalation of tensions in diplomatic relations between the two countries due to the case of American priest Andrew Branson, even reaching the limit of reciprocal sanctions between them. In addition, the Turkish military operation in northeastern Syria against the armed Kurdish units caused a renewed dispute between them in 2019.

Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system was one of the most important crises in relations between Ankara and Washington during the Trump era, at which time the US Congress demanded imposing sanctions on Turkey. These sanctions were supposed to come into force after the signing of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) in August 2017, but the US president decided to maintain relations with Turkey, obstructing the imposition of the CAATSA sanctions and other sanctions.

Additionally, the friendly relations between Trump and Erdogan have preserved the relations between the two countries well, despite the conflict between their interests in foreign policy regarding several files, especially in Syria.

Biden

There are various differences between the policies of Trump and his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, towards many issues with Turkey, especially the Syrian file and the allegations of the Armenian genocide. Last December, Biden attacked the Turkish president and called for cooperation with the Turkish opposition to bring him down, which was widely celebrated among many Turkish parties.

Biden has criticized several Turkish positions during his election campaign, including opposition to Ankara’s military operations in Syria. He also described the agreement between Trump and Erdogan to provide Turkey a safe zone as a betrayal of the Kurds and the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (KDPU), as he supports the establishment of autonomy for the armed Kurdish units in northern Syria.

Biden is not satisfied with Turkey’s policies and activities to explore for natural gas in the eastern Mediterranean region, and he has stressed cooperation with the allied countries in the eastern Mediterranean, namely Greece, Israel, Egypt and France, as well as the need to isolate Turkey. He also supports imposing the CAATSA sanctions if Turkey does not abandon the Russian S-400 system, and he acknowledged the need for American recognition of the Armenian Genocide. Biden is also opposed to keeping US nuclear warheads at the Incirlik base.

It is clear then that Ankara prefers to deal with President Trump and is afraid to confront Biden due to his hostile stances towards Turkey recently, but some Turkish circles believe that there is no significant difference between Trump and Biden, who knows Turkey well, as the differences between the two countries will remain.

Bumpy path

Mustafa Salah, a researcher in international relations, told the Reference that the importance of the current US elections is increasing for several reasons, some of which relate to the circumstances surrounding these elections, and others are the personalities of the candidates who have stirred up controversy over the management of many regional and international files that are related to the interests of the United States. In fact, there is no difference between Trump and Biden regarding undermining Turkish policy, which has become threatening to US interests. It is known that the US president, if he wins a second term, will be more daring than his first term towards resolving the files and this matter will become clearer for Trump if he wins. As for Biden, he has clearly announced his strategy to confront Turkey and change the ruling political regime there, and some have even called him the Turkish opposition candidate.

Salah added that both Trump and Biden will seek to pursue a more confrontational policy with Ankara, in contrast to US policy during Trump’s first term, which nevertheless witnessed many stages of tension and disagreements, as well as the imposition of sanctions.