Assassinations have not stopped Iran nuclear programme, Israeli official admits

Mossad’s assassination a year ago of the brigadier in charge of Iran’s nuclear programme did little to hinder its development, an Israeli official has admitted, as the country’s “direct action” campaign against Tehran is increasingly called into question.

The “senior official”, who spoke to Israeli television on condition of anonymity, was discussing the choices Israel faces as talks in Vienna over Iran’s nuclear programme remain deadlocked.

Israel has been threatening to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites if it believes it is about to build a nuclear weapon. But over the past 15 years it has depended on a campaign of sabotage and assassination, openly discussed but never admitted, of Iranian nuclear scientists.

The official who spoke to Israel’s Channel 12 was not the first analyst to cast doubt on these efforts, but was the first from inside the Israeli government to suggest the shooting of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh with a satellite-controlled machinegun had not been the triumph it was originally considered.

“The killing of Fakhrizadeh did not brake Iran’s progress,” he said. “The current situation is the most advanced that Iran has ever reached.”

Last week The New York Times reported US officials had also warned that Israel’s campaign against Iran in recent years had been “counterproductive”. As well as killing at least four or five nuclear scientists in the past 12 years, Israel is also believed to have sabotaged Iran’s nuclear facilities with explosive devices, drones and computer malware.

The campaign had merely encouraged the Iranians to “build back better”, the US officials were reported to have said.

The killing of Fakhrizadeh, who oversaw all aspects of the nuclear programme and was also a deputy defence minister, did not stop Iran speeding up its uranium enrichment programme in the 12 months since.

The nuclear talks, which resumed in Vienna on Monday, have seen the new government of President Raisi taking a much harder line than that of his predecessor, President Rouhani.

When the talks broke off for the Iranian presidential election in June, they were said to be close to agreement. Both sides — the Iranians on the one hand, and the US on the other, with European countries mediating — have agreed in principle to return to the terms of the 2015 deal torn up by President Trump.

That would reinstate severe limits to the nuclear programme in return for the lifting of the nuclear-related sanctions reimposed by Trump.

However, the Iranians are now demanding compensation for their economic losses and a guarantee that America will not pull out of the deal again, something President Biden cannot give, especially given the possibility that Trump may stand again for the White House in 2024.

The US wants promises that the deal will be followed by negotiations on Iran’s broader regional policies.

In the meantime, Iran has already this year enriched uranium to 60 per cent purity, well above the 20 per cent it had reached before the 2015 deal and not far short of the 90 per cent necessary for a nuclear weapon.

There is no known peaceful purpose for uranium enriched to this level, unlike 20 per cent enriched uranium, which is necessary for a medical research reactor the Iranians are known to have in Tehran.

The Israeli establishment is now debating whether a military attack on Iran’s facilities would be possible, and the air force has been given a $1.5 billion budget to prepare for the possibility, according to Israeli media. It has bought “bunker buster” bombs from the US, with a view to targeting enrichment sites buried deep in mountainsides.

But even so, an attack would involve flying long distances, over Jordan and Iraq or Saudi Arabia, and would almost certainly trigger retaliation.