Somali Al-Shabaab leaders flee siege, impacted by defections

Ahmed Adel

The terrorist Al-Shabaab movement in Somalia is witnessing a state of collapse, as disputes and defections are impacting its leaders, while the Somali army is intensifying its strikes against the al-Qaeda affiliate.

According to the Somalia National News Agency (SONNA), the differences within Al-Shabaab resulted in the imposition of house arrest on some of its prominent leaders in the far south of the country.

SONNA reported that Hassan Afgooye, a leader in the movement responsible for finance who is currently in the city of Jilib in the Middle Juba region, is one of the field commanders who fled to the south of the country, and the field commander Farhan Kahii, who was in charge of the movement in the Galguduud region in recent years, fled to Middle Juba.

The list of fugitives included the leader Nour Tiri, who took refuge in the Barawa area of Lower Shabelle, and Ismail Osoble, who was responsible for the assassinations and infiltrated into Middle Juba. Mualim Jibu, who held several senior positions within the movement in the Bay and Bakool regions, also fled to the far south, and the leader Musa Muhajir from Mombasa, who was a commander in Kenya, disappeared in Middle Juba.

Army strikes disturb Al-Shabaab

Mohamed Ezz El-Din, a researcher on African affairs, said that the successive military strikes and tribal resistance led to the mass flight and surrender of many members of Al-Shabaab to the Somali army.

Ezz El-Din confirmed in an exclusive statement to the Reference that Al-Shabaab suffers from a major defect in its movement’s agenda, pointing out that its leaders fled from the army forces, especially in the south and center of the country.

He added that the members of Al-Shabaab fled as a result of the severe financial crisis that the terrorist movement is experiencing due to the government’s imposition of a siege on it, which caused an imbalance in the movement.

Army and tribes confront terrorism

For his part, Dr. Abu al-Fadl El-Esnawi, a political affairs researcher at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, said that the plan drawn up by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, specifically with Somali tribes or other countries to confront the movement, will have great impacts on al-Shabaab.

Esnawi confirmed in an exclusive statement to the Reference that the elements of the Al-Shabaab present in the outskirts of the country are very weak compared to their counterparts in the central places, and it will be easier for them to fall militarily against the Somali army forces. He added that Al-Shabaab will not fall easily, but it will be exposed to multiple crises.

He noted that Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has a solid strategy to resist the movement, which he built on official and unofficial confrontation with the use of the tribes, given their knowledge of the entrances, strength and geography of the armed organization.

Esnawi explained that the Somali president was able to formulate international coordination in the Horn of Africa with the aim of besieging the movement inside and outside the country, which will have a strong impact on Al-Shabaab’s presence.