Niger coup: Catastrophic security repercussions on Sahel, Sahara

Ahmed Adel

The situation in Niger took a dangerous turn after the coup in which a group of presidential guards led by General Omar Tchiani detained President Mohamed Bazoum and closed the roads leading to the presidential palace in Niamey.

Effect of the coup

Soon, the echoes of past events reverberated in neighboring countries. Whether in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso or Niger itself, the recurring theme and stereotype remains the same, military leaders attempting to seize power, using state television as a platform to make their first statement to the nation.

It is the same scenario that Ruth First spoke about in 1970 in her most famous book entitled “The Barrel of a Gun” about power and military coups in Africa, as if times had never changed.

In a statement read by Colonel Amadou Abdramane of the Air Force, the Bazoum government was overthrown and the constitution suspended, and the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) was installed to carry out the tasks of running the country. In the same usual context, a night curfew was imposed, and borders and airspace were closed.

Major repercussions

Researcher Mohamed al-Sharqawi, who specializes in terrorist movements and crisis areas, said that the Niger coup would have major security repercussions for stability in the Sahel and Sahara region, since Niger was considered the most stable area in the region, which is afflicted by security crises.

In a special statement to the Reference, Sharqawi explained that the coming days will witness an armed movement towards Niger in particular in an attempt to exploit the security confusion that the state is experiencing after the overthrow of the elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, especially in light of the arms chaos that the region as a whole suffers from, and with the possibility that Niger, which was a relatively stable country before the coup, would enter a state of internal strife.

Very disturbing

According to Sharqawi, the security situation in the Sahel region is “extremely worrying.” For months, militias and armed extremist movements have launched large-scale attacks in an attempt to access resources and impose regional control and influence. He added that this wave has increased in light of the state of chaos afflicting Sudan, which is the eastern gateway to the Sahel and Sahara region.

The crisis of arms proliferation in the Sahel and Sahara region is one of the most prominent problems entrenched in the region, and its repercussions are increasing over time in light of the state of security fragility in the region, Sharqawi stressed, adding that it is possible the crisis could spread outside the regional borders and impact neighboring countries, as was evident in the success of extremist groups in transferring their threats to neighboring countries that are not members of the G5 Sahel, including Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo. This has devastated fragile local economies and hampered humanitarian aid efforts in the region.

Sharqawi pointed out that with time, some of the causes of the crisis of arms proliferation and its entrenchment in the region have turned into challenges that are increasing with the continued absence of a radical solution to the problems that the region suffers from, and therefore the crisis will prolong as Niger enters into a security chaos that may be prolonged, as well as the possibility of the emergence of new terrorist hotbeds and the occurrence of agreements and coordination with extremist groups in the Sahel and Sahara region.

He added that there are extremist groups operating in Niger, including al-Qaeda, ISIS, Boko Haram, and other groups of an ethnic nature, such as the Fulani herders, who spread with their livestock in the tri-border between Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Consequently, the increasing security fragility and confusion will exacerbate armed confrontations and the movement of groups.

ISIS movements

Sharqawi said that ISIS will move violently in response to the military operations that Bazoum had launched against it in March, when the Nigerien army launched a military operation against ISIS bases in West Africa on the border with neighboring Nigeria, resulting in the killing of about 20 of the organization’s fighters and the arrest of 83 others, with the aim of cutting off the supply lines, in addition to the increasing waves of Boko Haram fighters fleeing towards Niger to escape the fighting with ISIS in the neighboring areas.