Iran and post-ISIS defeat plans in Iraq

Jihan Mustafa

No sooner had Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared the defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in his country than questions rose about the fate of the Popular Mobilization Militias and whether they would be incorporated into government forces?

Regional developments had, meanwhile, cast doubt on the possible new mission of the militias which receive huge support from Iran. Some people do not rule out the possibility of the militias moving their operations outside Iraq.

Armed militias had become Iran’s arm that implements its expansionist plans and wages wars in the region.

Yemen will most likely be the next stop for the Popular Mobilization Militias, having already completed their mission in Iraq. This was clearly stated on November 26th by the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohamed Ali Jaafari, who said his country would transfer its expertise to the Yemenis, in an indirect reference to the Shiite Houthis.

Iran’s expansionist plans primarily aim to threaten the security of Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia. The Islamic Republic attempts to control international maritime routes, especially the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a gateway to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, to expand its regional influence and counter international pressures on it.

Iran’s support to the Houthis was evident in the latter’s ability to fire ballistic missiles on Saudi Arabia, the last of which was fired on Saudi capital Riyadh on November 4th.

A close look at Iraq’s Shiite Popular Mobilization Militias shows the enormity of Iranian influence on them.

On June 13th, 2014, senior Iraqi Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, called on Iraqis to start jihad (holy war). This came hard on the heels of the collapse of the Iraqi army against advancing ISIS forces. Soon after this, the Popular Mobilization Militias emerged.

The militias are made up of hundreds of thousands of Iraqi youth. Each member of the militias reportedly gets a salary of $500, money paid by the Iraqi government which failed in merging some militia factions into the Iraqi army.

Iran’s Quds Force and its commander, Gen. Qassem Soleimani, play a big role in training the militias, supplying them with arms, and making battle plans for them.

An Iranian military advisor usually accompanies each unit of the militias along with another advisor from Hezbollah. A Hezbollah commander, known as Hajj Suleiman, was killed in Samarra, north of Baghdad.

The Iranians were responsible for coordination between the different units of the militias during battles against ISIS.

The Iranian role was clear in the Samarra battles which were commanded by Soleimani himself. Samarra is home to the two shrines of Shiite imams, Ali al-Hadi and Hasan al-Askari

The militias also sent some of their fighters to Syria at Iran’s request.

Worst scenario

The Middle East is in for the worst, if proper action is not taken against the Shiite militias which are part of Iran’s strategy of war by proxy against its regional and international enemies.

A study by Farzin Nadimi, a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Gulf region, showed that Iran depends on foreign militias in implementing its expansionist plans.

The study also said that Basij, a force of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, contains foreign fighters, which makes it capable of carrying out operations in other countries.

This might explain why Nouri al-Maliki, the pro-Iran head of the Rule of Law Coalition and the vice-president of Iraq, vehemently opposed calls for trimming the presence of the Popular Mobilization Militias following the defeat of ISIS.

Abadi, informed sources in Baghdad say, works to trim the militias’ influence and distance them from Iran. This move, they add, will fail so long as militias’ spokesman, Ahmed al-Asadi, a Maliki ally and a member of the Iraqi parliament, is still in place.

Maliki was quick to nip Abadi’s move in the bud by denouncing statements by French President, Emmanuel Macron, who called for disbanding the Popular Mobilization Militias.